Wednesday 21 September 2016

September Targets and Possible Birds

Targets and Birds

My target for September was for 15 new Year ticks. So far I have managed 13 and with 9 days to go that target could be reached. The following lists birds that could possibly occur over the next 9 days in descending probability order. That is I have made a spreadsheet of birds that would be year ticks seen on Fair Isle during September in the last eleven years.

56% chance -
  • Barnacle goose
  • pectoral sandpiper
  • olive-backed pipit

45% chance
  • Blyth's reed warbler
last year's Blyth's reed warbler
  • buff-breasted sandpiper

36% chance
  • Pallas' grasshopper warbler

27% chance
  • buff-bellied pipit
  • paddyfield warbler
  • pallid harrier
  • honey buzzard (missed the one seen a few days ago!)

18% chance
  • pomarine skua
  • melodious warbler
  • western subalpine warbler
  • American golden plover
  • Arctic redpoll
  • western bonelli's warbler
  • pechora pipit
  • red-flanked bluetail
  • thrush nightingale

OK let's get to a fantasy level of chance. The following have occurred once in eleven years :-

  • magnolia warbler
  • river warbler
  • eastern olivaceous warbler
  • Sabine's gull
  • Baird's sandpiper
  • White's thrush
  • Syke's warbler
  • spotted crake (there is one on the island at the moment)
  • Swainson's thrush
  • Two bar crossbill
  • brown flycatcher
  • Siberian thrush
  • Grey-cheeked thrush
  • Woodchat shrike
  • Iceland gull (!)
  • yellow-breasted bunting and . .
  • aquatic warbler

Please note that there are more species that have occurred in October here on Fair Isle.

Also there are a few birds that I should get back on the Mainland; bean goose for instance.

300 is on the way. 305 for a European record? I won't count my chickens just yet but . . . . 


  1. You should surely get Barnies on the mainland nip back up to Strathbeg!

  2. Can you add chicken to the list then!!!

  3. When are you due back on Shetland? Always good for something unexpected & I'm sure you're well aware there is a Pallid around Hillwell. Hope the crake shows today. Presume you've seen reports from Upton yesterday... cheers Mike


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