Saturday
9th July Light S - AM Dull, misty,
drizzle
7:30AM
- I am sitting on the ferry that takes one to the wonderful Hebridean
island of Coll, which lies north west of Mull. The trip takes just
under three hours and hence I have some time on my hands to take
stock of the year list situation.
Now
for non birders the following may be of less interest than previous
blog entries but I am trying to give everyone a perspective of the
planning that goes into the route and itinerary. Also one may like to
look and assess my chances of beating the present UK Green record,
currently at 289 and of beating the magic 300. As for the European
record held by Ponc Feliu at 304, well have a look, read the text and
consider whether I will beat it.
My
Green Year list stands at 262 and that is twenty five ahead of this
time last year. Whether this lead will be maintained and lead to a
new European Green year list record will depend on how many birds
that I saw in the final six months of 2015 I see again this year.
Those birds were:-
American golden plover
Arctic warbler
Balearic shearwater
Barnacle goose
Barred warbler
Bean goose
Bluethroat
Blyth's reed warbler
Capercaillie
Chestnut bunting
Citril finch
Citrine wagtail
Common rosefinch
Crested tit
Eastern subalpine warbler
Honey buzzard
Iceland gull
King eider
Lanceolated warbler
Lesser yellowlegs
Laughing gull
Little auk
Little bunting
Night heron
Olive backed pipit
Ortolan bunting
Osprey
Pallas' grasshopper warbler
Pallid harrier
Pomarine skua
Ptarmigan
Radde's warbler
Red-breasted flycatcher
Red-flanked bluetail
Ring-necked duck
Rock dove
Siberian rubythroat
Sooty shearwater
Spotted crake
Storm petrel
Subalpine warbler – Moltoni
Twite
White-rumped sandpiper
Wood warbler
Wryneck
Yellow-browed warbler
The photographs are of the birds I saw last year.
Chances of seeing all of these are very slim. Citril
finch, Chestnut bunting and Moltoni's warbler are once in a blue moon
birds. Others should be added easily; rock dove today on Coll for
instance.
Then there are the ones where I feel I have had their
equivalent bird already; Franklin's gull is on the list this year
replacing laughing gull. Purple heron for night heron and greater
yellowlegs for lesser. Still time for these birds to turn up,
hopefully.
With the rest of July being spent going to Speyside and
the Abernethy Forest, as well as seawatching for the two rare ducks
near to Aberdeen, King eider and the white-winged scoter; I should
add osprey, crested tit, ptarmigan and capercaillie. The scoter would
be the first lifer for me this year, that is a bird I have never seen
before. In fact I am not sure of my British life list, around 460 I
think. I must update it someday.
Now as well as the forty six birds mentioned above there
are a couple of ones that I missed last year that may surprise some.
Waxwing, how could I miss waxwing? That classic, superbly beautiful
winter visitor which occasionally reaches the UK in large numbers.
Didn't see one. The photographs of Tommy Hyndeman's son, Henry
holding either an apple with a waxwing on it, or a stick with number
of them on it taunts me to see them this year.
I was surprised I didn't see a pectoral sandpiper. A
gimme I thought. Didn't see one.
With the month of August being spent on North Ronaldsay
there should be the chance for some of the rarer birds seen last year
being seen again this; sooty shearwater, storm petrel and barred
warbler.
Here is a list, compiled by The Oracle, Phil Andrews, of the rare birds seen on North Ronaldsay
over the last few years that would be additions to my list:-
American golden plover
Balearic shearwater
Barred warbler
Black-headed bunting
Blue-winged teal
Bluethroat
Booted warbler
Buff-breasted sandpiper
Citrine wagtail
Common rosefinch
Cory's shearwater
Great shearwater
Honey buzzard
Icterine warbler
Leaches' petrel
Lttle shearwater
Long-tailed skua
Marsh warbler
Ortolan bunting
Pacific golden plover
Pectoral sandpiper
Sabine's gull
Sooty shearwater
Storm petrel
Two-barred crossbill
White-rumped sandpiper
Wood warbler
Wryneck
How many of these will be added to the list by the end
of my visit there? The target is for ten of them and anything over
that will be a bonus. Anything under will hopefully be caught up by
the Setember and October visit to Fair isle and Shetland.
Now for those months I have made some spreadsheets that
give percentage probability for each of the rare birds seen there for
each month. I have placed this information on the blog before but
repeat it here for you to make your own assessment of my chances of
seeing my target of ten birds for each month. You may like to make a
list guessing which ones I will see.
So from 2005 to 2015, fifty eight different rare birds
that I still need for my year list were seen in September with an
average of nineteen new birds per year.
In order of percentage probablility from 100% downwards
these birds were:-
100%
Yellow-browed warbler
Common rosefinch
91%
Bluethroat
Barred warbler
82%
Little bunting
73%
Sooty shearwater
Mealy redpoll
Citrine wagtail
64%
Red-breasted flycatcher
55%
Barnacle goose
Olive-backed pipit
Lanceolated warbler
Pectoral sandpiper
Wryneck
All of these then have a better than 50:50 chance of me
seeing them. It would be a shock notto see yellow-browed warblers
this year. Last year I saw at least 111!
Now here are the birds with a less than 50:50 chance of
being seen:-
46%
Icterine warbler
Blyth's reed warbler
Arctic warbler
Buff-breasted sandpiper
Wood warbler
Ortolan bunting
37%
Pallas' grasshopper warbler
Short-toed lark
Storm petrel
27%
Paddyfield warbler
Pallid harrier
Honey buzzard
Red-throated pipit
18%
thrush nightingale
Red-flanked bluetail
Pechora pipit
Arctic redpoll
Melodious warbler
Pomarine skua
American golden plover
Western subalpine warbler
Now for the 'once in eleven year' birds:-
Magnolia warbler
River warbler
Eastern olivaceous warbler
Great snipe
Sabine's gull
Baird's sandpiper
White's thrush
Syke's warbler
Swinhoe's petrel
Booted warbler
Spotted crake
Swainson's thrush
Two-barred crossbill
Brown flycatcher
Siberian thrush
Grey-cheeked thrush
Woodchat shrike
Iceland gull
Yellow-breasted bunting
Leaches' petrel
Aquatic warbler
For October, with the years 2011 and 2012 having the
data missing, and an average of almost 18 possible year ticks per
year, on Fair Isle the birds go like this:-
100%
Yellow-browed warbler
Little bunting
Bluethroat
89%
Sooty shearwater
78%
Little auk
Mealy redpoll
67%
Common rosefinch
Barnacle goose
Olive-backed pipit
Red-breasted flycatcher
Barred warbler
56%
Lanceolated warbler
Waxwing
44%
Short-toed lark
White's thrush
Arctic redpoll
Iceland gull
33%
Blyth's reed warbler
Red-throated pipit
Buff-breasted sandpiper
Red-flanked bluetail
Siberian rubythroat
Pllas' grasshopper warbler
22%
Sabine's gull
Radde's warbler
Rustic bunting
Ortolan bunting
Grey-cheeked thrush
Black-throated thrush
Siberian stonechat
Bean goose
Blyth's pipit
White-rumped sandpiper
Paddyfield warbler
11%
Arctic warbler
River warbler
Osprey
Red-eyed vireo
Blackpoll warbler
Honey buzzard
King eider
Thrush nightingale
Pallas' warbler
Siberian thrush
Citrine wagtail
Subalpine warbler sp.
Pine bunting
Marsh warbler
November will see me moving south through Scotland. Bean
geese at the RSPB reserve at Fannyside, near to Falkirk, should be a
gimme. Maybe there will be a snow goose with the Pink-foots somewhere
close as well.
December will be a case of wherever the bird is I will
try to get to it. Maybe the pallid harrier will return to Snettisham,
Norfolk. Maybe there will be ring-necked duck or blue-winged teal
somewhere.
So there you have it. If you have read all this then I
salute you. A page really for the bird fanatic maybe but I hope that
you can see how incredible the next few months could be. The list
will grow and I feel it that I will easily beat the current UK Green
record of 289.
As for the 300 . . . it is going to be close but what a
ride!
By the way, the ferry can't dock at Coll due to very
thick fog and is carrying on to the next island Tiree. Standing on
the aft deck it is sad to see pieces of plastic floating in what sea
I can see. Nicer to see manx shearwaters sitting on the water before
skittering off into the fog.