Tuesday, 4 October 2016

October Targets . . .

Tuesday 4th October October Target Birds

Once again I have a spreadsheet made up of the possible Year tick birds that have occurred on Fair Isle in the last eleven years as detailed in their wonderful annual reports.
Each bird has a percentage probability and the average number of year tick birds for October is 8.9. Let's make my target 9 then, optimistic but I have already had 5!

radde's warbler

blyth's reed warbler

red-flanked bluetail

pechora pipit and

barnacle goose.

So what's left? Let's start with the birds I saw last October here on Fair Isle plus there percentage chance:-

Olive-backed pipit (72.7% up to 100% in the last five years)
Well one was seen on the island today so hopefully that will be re-found tomorrow.

Siberian Rubythroat (36.4% but up to 60% in the last five years)
A high chance then of seeing one and I may be greedy but I wish for a male, unlike last year's hard to see female.

OK, now for the other birds that I didn't see on Fair Isle last year but they have been here as follows:-

(81.8% chance)
Little auk

(54.4% chance)
waxwing
Iceland gull (increases to 100% chance for the last five years)

(45.5% chance)
Arctic redpoll [Snowball please, hornemanni.]

(36.4%)
Pallas' grasshopper warbler
White's thrush
[What a pair these two would make!]

(27.3%)
Buff-breasted sandpiper [it would be nice to have a Yank]
Black-throated thrush [aah, memories of one nearly in my garden in Redditch in the '90s]

(18.2%)
Blyth's pipit
White-rumped sandpiper
Bean goose
Siberian stonechat
Grey-cheeked thrush
Rustic bunting
Sabine's gull

and finally . . .

(9.1%) - fantasy time.....
River warbler
Red-eyed vireo
Blackpoll warbler
Honey buzzard
King eider
Thrush nightingale
Pallas' warbler
Siberian thrush
Pine bunting
Subalpine warbler (since split but no details of which in report)
Hume's yellow-browed warbler

Right, there you have it. My Green Year list at the moment stands at 298 and I am hoping for 4 more birds over the next few weeks here on fair Isle. The winds are south-easterly for the next ten days at least and the wind is set to calm down. Sunshine also for the next ten days, what a time to be on Fair Isle with the weather set fair. Those winds by the way originate from beyond Finland. What will they bring?

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