Tuesday
4th October October Target Birds
Once
again I have a spreadsheet made up of the possible Year tick birds
that have occurred on Fair Isle in the last eleven years as detailed
in their wonderful annual reports.
Each
bird has a percentage probability and the average number of year tick
birds for October is 8.9. Let's make my target 9 then, optimistic but
I have already had 5!
radde's warbler
blyth's reed
warbler
red-flanked
bluetail
pechora pipit and
barnacle goose.
So what's left?
Let's start with the birds I saw last October here on Fair Isle plus
there percentage chance:-
Olive-backed
pipit (72.7% up to 100% in the last five years)
Well one was seen on
the island today so hopefully that will be re-found tomorrow.
Siberian
Rubythroat (36.4% but up to
60% in the last five years)
A
high chance then of seeing one and I may be greedy but I wish for a
male, unlike last year's hard to see female.
OK, now for the
other birds that I didn't see on Fair Isle last year but they have
been here as follows:-
(81.8%
chance)
Little auk
(54.4% chance)
waxwing
Iceland gull
(increases to 100% chance for
the last five years)
(45.5%
chance)
Arctic
redpoll [Snowball please, hornemanni.]
(36.4%)
Pallas'
grasshopper warbler
White's thrush
[What a pair
these two would make!]
(27.3%)
Buff-breasted
sandpiper [it would be nice to have a Yank]
Black-throated
thrush [aah, memories of one nearly in my garden in Redditch in the
'90s]
(18.2%)
Blyth's pipit
White-rumped
sandpiper
Bean goose
Siberian
stonechat
Grey-cheeked
thrush
Rustic bunting
Sabine's gull
and finally . . .
(9.1%) -
fantasy time.....
River warbler
Red-eyed vireo
Blackpoll warbler
Honey buzzard
King eider
Thrush
nightingale
Pallas' warbler
Siberian thrush
Pine bunting
Subalpine warbler
(since split but no details of which in report)
Hume's
yellow-browed warbler
Right, there you
have it. My Green Year list at the moment stands at 298 and I
am hoping for 4 more birds over the next few weeks here on fair Isle.
The winds are south-easterly for the next ten days at least and the
wind is set to calm down. Sunshine also for the next ten days, what a
time to be on Fair Isle with the weather set fair. Those winds by the
way originate from beyond Finland. What will they bring?
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