Wednesday, 21 September 2016

September Targets and Possible Birds

Targets and Birds

My target for September was for 15 new Year ticks. So far I have managed 13 and with 9 days to go that target could be reached. The following lists birds that could possibly occur over the next 9 days in descending probability order. That is I have made a spreadsheet of birds that would be year ticks seen on Fair Isle during September in the last eleven years.

56% chance -
  • Barnacle goose
  • pectoral sandpiper
  • olive-backed pipit

45% chance
  • Blyth's reed warbler
last year's Blyth's reed warbler
  • buff-breasted sandpiper

36% chance
  • Pallas' grasshopper warbler

27% chance
  • buff-bellied pipit
  • paddyfield warbler
  • pallid harrier
  • honey buzzard (missed the one seen a few days ago!)

18% chance
  • pomarine skua
  • melodious warbler
  • western subalpine warbler
  • American golden plover
  • Arctic redpoll
  • western bonelli's warbler
  • pechora pipit
  • red-flanked bluetail
  • thrush nightingale

OK let's get to a fantasy level of chance. The following have occurred once in eleven years :-

  • magnolia warbler
  • river warbler
  • eastern olivaceous warbler
  • Sabine's gull
  • Baird's sandpiper
  • White's thrush
  • Syke's warbler
  • spotted crake (there is one on the island at the moment)
  • Swainson's thrush
  • Two bar crossbill
  • brown flycatcher
  • Siberian thrush
  • Grey-cheeked thrush
  • Woodchat shrike
  • Iceland gull (!)
  • yellow-breasted bunting and . .
  • aquatic warbler

Please note that there are more species that have occurred in October here on Fair Isle.

Also there are a few birds that I should get back on the Mainland; bean goose for instance.


300 is on the way. 305 for a European record? I won't count my chickens just yet but . . . . 

3 comments:

  1. You should surely get Barnies on the mainland nip back up to Strathbeg!

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  2. Can you add chicken to the list then!!!

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  3. When are you due back on Shetland? Always good for something unexpected & I'm sure you're well aware there is a Pallid around Hillwell. Hope the crake shows today. Presume you've seen reports from Upton yesterday... cheers Mike

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